Cliff Harris WEATHER GEMS

We have created SIX ZONES dividing the North American Continent weatherwise running from west-to-east along with the basic jet stream storm tracks from the Pacific Coast to the Atlantic regions, as well as from north-to-south, from Canada to Mexico. This particular 90-day long-range outlook will earmark the upcoming June 20 through September 21 Summer of 2004.

ZONE #1: THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA:

ZONE #1 KEY U.S. CITIES: Seattle and Olympia [WA]; Portland, Salem and Eugene, Medford and Pendleton [OR]; Yellowstone Park [WY]; Kalispell and Missoula [MT]; Ogden, Salt Lake City and Provo [UT]; Lewiston, Twin Falls, Boise, Idaho Falls and Coeur d'Alene [ID]; Yakima and Spokane [WA]; Grand Junction [CO]; Sacramento, the San Francisco/Oakland Bay Area [CA], Reno [NV].

ZONE #1 KEY CANADIAN CITIES: Vancouver, Victoria and Cranbrook [B.C.]

Thus far, a full month into the Spring of 2004, despite last week's light showers, overall it's been much milder and drier than usual under a stubborn ridge of high pressure locked firmly in place across most of Zone #1. We've already seen afternoon high temperatures soar into the May-like 70s and 80s, even into the normally chilly Flathead Valley of northwestern Montana and parts of the Panhandle region of North Idaho. Sub-par snowpack levels will undoubtedly threaten river flow levels this summer across Zone #1 as well as supplies of vital irrigation water. Current mid to late April snowpack depths are barely 75% of normal following one of the driest late winter and early spring periods on record. At one time, though, towards the end of February, the area snowpack levels stood at a healthy 120% of normal. But, that's this prolonged cycle of wide weather extremes for you. Ma Nature's pendulum swings in a wide arc to say the least.

But, there is some good news ahead on the weather front. The forementioned climatological pendulum is already beginning to swing back to the cooler and wetter side of the scale and should bring rains on-and-off between now and much of the Summer of 2004, which shouldn't be as hot as the fire-ravaged 2003 season in these parts. Yes, we do see periods of near triple-digit heat, but they shouldn't last more than a few days except, perhaps, during late July or early August. Summer thunderstorms will likewise be more frequent than usual, especially in the higher elevations of north Idaho and western Montana. early frosts and freezes may blacken vegetation at altitudes above 4,000 feet as early as September 3-5 just ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend.

ZONE #2: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST:

ZONE #2 KEY CITIES: Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, Fresno, San Diego and Palm Springs [CA]; Las Vegas [NV]; Cedar City [UT]; Flagstaff, Prescott and Phoenix [AZ]; Santa Fe and Albuquerque [NM]; El Paso [TX].

We see no quick end to one of the worst droughts in recorded history in the water-short regions of Zone #2. The month of March was the hottest such period on record in the Phoenix area of Arizona. Southern California reported increased water woes following a shorter than normal rainy season in 2003-04, which ended more than six weeks ahead of schedule.

Afternoon maximum readings will likely exceed 120 degrees again this summer near Death Valley with the Phoenix and Tucson areas probably reaching 110 to 115 degrees sometime around the July 2-9 full moon cycle. The late summer so-called Monsoon Season in the desert regions will be shorter and less moist than usual.

ZONE #3: THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA, THE NORTHERN U.S. GREAT PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST CORN AND SOYBEAN BELT:

ZONE #3 KEY U.S. CITIES: Great Falls, Helena and Billings [MT]; Casper and Cheyenne [WY]; Colorado Springs and Denver [CO]; Williston and Fargo [ND]; Rapid City and Sioux Falls [SD]; Lincoln and Omaha [NE]; Goodland [KS]; Duluth and Minneapolis [MN]; Des Moines [IA]; St. Louis [MO]; Milwaukee and Madison [WI]; Chicago and Decatur/Springfield [IL]; Grand Rapids and Lansing [MI]; Fort Wayne and Indianapolis [IN].

ZONE #3 KEY CANADIAN CITIES: Calgary and Edmonton [Alberta]; Regina and Saskatoon [Saskatchewan]; Winnipeg [Manitoba]; Thunder Bay [Ontario].

If we're right on target again with our North American Summer of 2004 Outlooks, only the northwestern quadrant of the U.S. and portions of southwestern Canada will be cooler and wetter than usual for the season. All other regions, including the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt, will for the third year-in-a-row, be considerably hotter and drier than normal, especially in the second half of July and the first two weeks of August. Yes, folks, if this forecast does ring true, we indeed should eventually see "beans in the teens" for the first time ever! (We've already seen $10-a-bushel soybeans this spring.)

Even if we do see the arrival of a new warm and moist El Nino in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean later this year, as some scientists predict, it will come far too late to affect the 2004 summer growing season, particularly east of the Rockies to the Atlantic Coastline. But, it's indeed possible, almost probable, that the following 2005 growing season east of the Missouri River will finally, after many years of summer heat and dryness, especially south of I-80 and north of I-40, turn more favorable for agriculture across most areas of the U.S. and Canada. As our crops improve, however, El Nino could spell the return of disastrous drought patterns in Australia, South Africa and parts of South Asia and India. Only time will tell.

ZONE #4: THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS:

KEY CITIES: Dodge City and Wichita [KS]; Lamar [CO]; Roswell [NM]; Amarillo and Lubbock [TX]; Oklahoma City and Tulsa [OK]; Austin, San Antonio, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Galveston and El Paso [TX]; Kansas City [MO].

The worst drought in at least 300 years continues across much of the western Great Plains Hard Red Winter Wheat Belt, this despite some occasional shower activity in the past couple of weeks. Until the eventual arrival of the next warm and moist El Nino sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, we see no major changes on the climatological horizon. Even the so-called "Dust Bowl Days" of the 1930s were not quite as dry in eastern Colorado, the western third of Kansas, southwestern Nebraska and extreme southeastern Wyoming. The more things change…the more they stay the same.

ZONE #5: THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA

ZONE #5 KEY U.S. CITIES: Boston [MA]; New York City and Buffalo [NY]; Concord [NH]; Burlington [VT]; Erie [PA]; Detroit [MI]; Cincinnati [OH]; Pittsburgh and Philadelphia [PA]; Charleston [WV]; Providence [RI]; Portland, [ME]; Hartford [CT]; Baltimore [MD]; Washington, D.C.; and Atlantic City [NJ].

ZONE #5 KEY CANADIAN CITIES: Toronto/Ottawa, Montreal/Quebec City.

The hottest temperatures this fast-approaching Summer of 2004 across much of Zone #5 should occur sometime around the very end of the July 2-9 full moon cycle into the first three days of the following July 10-17 last quarter lunar phase. Some weather stations in the southwestern corner of the region in the Ohio Valley may actually observe triple digit readings at this time, possibly again during the early August full moon cycle when the soybeans are flowering. Total precipitation during the mid to late summer period should be less than normal in most areas, with the possible exception of Maine and the Canadian Maritime Provinces, which could be a bit wetter than usual. These will be the same parts of Zone #5 that may experience some early frosts and freezes. By late September or early October, there may be some snow flurries across the Green and White Mountains of interior New England.

ZONE #6: THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., INCLUDING FLORIDA:

Like most other areas east of the Continental Divide, I see the hottest weather this summer over most of Zone #6 occurring between the full moon cycles of early July through the same period in August depending, of course, on the exact arrival of the 2004 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. It will likewise be very humid across much of Dixie just prior to these tropical storms.

Speaking of the 2004 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Season, our expert, Meteorologist Randy Mann and I are looking for at least 15 named storms, about the same number as last year. Remember, nothing much has changed as far as sea-surface temperature patterns are concerned. We are still in a prolonged La Nada phase.

It's possible that two or three of these tropical storms may attain dangerous Category 3 or 4 hurricane status prior to reaching the southeastern Atlantic Coastline of the U.S. A strong high pressure system to the west of the Appalachian Mountains may force one or more of these Atlantic hurricanes up the East Coast into New England, especially during the mid-September through the early October period. Stay tuned…Cliff Harris, Climatologist.

The next two months will not be as dry as the previous 60 days across the Inland Empire, including North Idaho.

There will be rather frequent showers and a few thunderstorms at times with pea-size hail and strong, gusty winds in excess of 30 MPH.

Temperatures will still be mild, however, for the most part with only a couple of chilly periods, particularly at the very end of this month into early May when some high elevation snows will be possible.

In the past three weeks, we've seen two record highs, 74 degrees on March 30 and a balmy 77 on April 12. I'm still looking for our first 80 degree plus afternoon by sometime around the end of this month into the first week of May. By late May into early June around Memorial Day, we should see a blisteringly hot afternoon reaching the lower 90s, maybe higher in southeastern Washington State.FF2BoAEPaeCaroline Lobsingercol_Cliff Harris 4-19SnpEditorialFF2SORTbAe2AUDTAe”O|$