Experts see bright spots in job scene

SANDPOINT — “Now is the winter of our discontent.” Make that, continued discontent.

But in those famous opening lines from Shakespeare, the actor goes on to say, “made glorious summer.” According to the Idaho Department of Labor, that timing sounds about right, for it could be the middle of next year before we see any substantial improvement on the local and regional job scene.

In figures released Friday, the department pointed to a glimmer of good news as the number of unemployed workers in Bonner County dropped from 13.7 percent in October to 13.4 percent last month. Hardly the stuff celebrations are made of, but a positive move, nonetheless — and especially welcome after multiple months of increasingly higher numbers.

Looking back, Idaho was one of the last states to tumble into the recession hole.

“And the predictions I’m hearing is that it’s going to be a long, slow climb back out,” said Bridgette Bradshaw-Fleer, manager of the IDL’s Sandpoint office.

In late 2007, Bonner County’s unemployment rate was hanging around 5 percent while other parts of the country were losing jobs in a variety of sectors, Bradshaw-Fleer said. Starting with layoffs that fall at Priest River’s J.D. Lumber Company, the dominoes started to fall as other employers began to cut staff. Before long, the county’s jobless figures broke 10 percent, most recently teasing the 14 percent mark before backing off in November.

Alivia Body, regional labor economist for the IDL, pointed to manufacturing and heath care as the two primary job creators as 2010 draws to a close. Those sectors combined make up 26 percent of the paychecks in Bonner County, following retail jobs in the top spot with 18 percent of total employment.

“Manufacturers are seeing some positive signs and an opportunity for slow, steady growth,” she said. “We’re seeing that region-wide, with the number of manufacturing jobs, as well as the number of health care jobs, increasing.”

The longer-term forecast remains strong, Body added, due to the demographics of current employees in both sectors.

In health care jobs, 26 percent of workers in the county are 55 or older. In manufacturing, 22 percent of local employees fall in that same age bracket. Over the next 10 years, the labor economist noted, those jobs are expected to start opening up as people reach retirement age.

Health care jobs could get an additional boost in because of the large population of seniors in this area.

“Bonner County has the highest median age in the state,” Body said.

Labor specialists call out the growth in the county’s manufacturing sector as a very good indicator for a turnaround. Even with large layoffs at key employers such as Quest Aircraft Company and Coldwater Creek, a number of smaller companies have managed to diversify, expand and add new jobs, with Lead-Lok, Encoder Products Company, Litehouse, Pneumex, Unicep and Laughing Dog Brewery ranked high among them.

But while employers add those jobs, they have also learned the lesson that was delivered so unmistakably during the downturn: Maximize efficiency or die.

“When things are rosy, you might not even notice places where you’re wasteful,” said Bradshaw-Fleer. “It takes times like these to remind people how important those things are. A lot of employers are looking at ways to become more efficient. Long-term, that means they can be more profitable.”

The near-term conventional wisdom — based on input from several local business owners — is that employers will keep trying to do more with less until they see signs of a solid recovery. At that point, they say, they will grow less risk-averse and start adding jobs.

Bradshaw-Fleer suspects that kind of movement won’t take place until next spring at the earliest. Her colleague at the labor department pushes things out a bit more than that.

“I have my bets on the second quarter of next year,” Body said.

All of which gives little in the way of solace to the long-term unemployed, many of whom have filled out applications and shown up for job interviews since early 2008. Bradshaw-Fleer’s office attempts to improve their odds with regular workshops covering topics such as resume writing, interviewing skills and job-hunting for the older worker.

But it’s the one-on-one interaction that gives her the clearest picture of what these individuals have to face as the months drag on and the jobs don’t come.

“It’s hard when you’re talking to someone who’s going through that,” the Sandpoint manager said.

“They’re not even thinking about buying Christmas presents — they’re trying to figure out how to pay rent and put food on the table.

“We try to be optimistic and give people a glimmer of hope,” she added. We tell them, ‘Hey, it’s not you — it’s the economy. There are fewer jobs to be had.’”

When Congress on Friday approved renewed benefits for long-term unemployed as part of tax-cut extensions, the president’s signature on that measure affected approximately 1,200 out of work people in Idaho, according to Bradshaw-Fleer.

“It doesn’t seem like a huge number, but for each of those people, it’s huge for them,” she said. “Most people can’t just give up, because they have families depending on them. More often, they’re just desperate. They’re willing to take a minimum wage job in order to have an income.”

Within this economic climate, the manager insists there are reasons for optimism.

“There are bright spots and there’s good news among all the bad news,” she said.

“There are jobs — you just have to be diligent and keep looking. It might not be their dream job, but it’s a full-time position that provides a living wage.”

Setting aside the image of a perfect job and settling into a different economic reality could well be the hallmark of a regional recovery that most analysts predict will be painfully slow.

To put things into perspective, the IDL’s labor economist called attention to employment figures from five years ago. Back then, the region was considered to be in good shape, job-wise, and was about to burst into a white-hot growth spurt that preceded an equally dramatic economic comeuppance.

“What people don’t realize is that we’re actually at the employment levels we had in 2005, before the big bubble,” Body said. “Nobody could sustain the kind of growth levels we saw back then.

“This is the new norm.”