Economist: Recovery will be slow, steady

KOOTENAI — National economic recovery will probably be a slow, steady process over the next five years, but Bonner County is in better shape than most of the nation.

That was Avista Corporation chief economist Randy Barcus’ prognosis for the next half-decade at the Bonner County Economic Development Corporation’s open house presentation Wednesday night. Barcus noted at the outset of his presentation that economic prediction was an extremely tricky process and can’t account for every possibility.

For instance, almost no one foresaw the crises that birthed the current economy.

“If I had predicted what would happen three years ago, they would have called me a lunatic,” he said.

According to Barcus, the recession ended in June 2009. Since then, unemployment has begun moderating and inflation has remained fairly low. Barcus sees the coming years bringing either a new recession or a period of slow economic growth.

“I think things are going to be marginally better in 2011, but you need to keep your eyes open in case consumer confidence plummets,” he said. “If that happens, we’re in for a much worse time.”

Personal and business bank accounts alike, meanwhile, will be feeling the sting from steadily rising oil prices. Barcus estimates that gas will likely cost $4 or $5 per gallon by 2015. Consequently, automobile makers will probably combat prohibitive pump prices by adjusting their model designs, emphasizing fuel efficiency and hybrid or alternative systems.

But the future isn’t all frowns and rain clouds. Barcus said that Bonner County is actually in better shape than most of the country. The average state employment growth for 2011 sits at 1.6 percent, Idaho stands to improve somewhere between 1.8 and 2.2 percent. What’s more, Bonner County is doing better than most of the state.

“Southern Idaho has its own economic issues that it needs to work out,” Barcus said. “So Bonner County is going to be growing faster than the Idaho average, and Idaho is going to be growing faster than the national average.”

Prior to the economic outlook presentation, Karl Dye, executive director of the BCEDC, said that an initiative to bring high-speed Internet to Bonner County is moving along briskly. The $14 million North Shore Fiber Optic Alliance project is envisioned to serve areas high population density including Dover, Sandpoint, Ponderay and Kootenai and bring cost-saving measures to local businesses.

The next steps for the fiber optics project include a presentation to the cities of Kootenai and Dover and meetings with potential service providers. Dye says that the project should be fully funded by February and break ground in spring.