Mine's grizzly study suggests higher population numbers

A grizzly bear population study released Tuesday afternoon by Mines Management concludes that there are "very likely significantly more grizzly bears in the Cabinet Mountains than has been previously reported."

That strong statement no doubt will catch the eye of the region's wildlife biologists. If the report proves true, it would indicate that grizzly bear recovery efforts in the Cabinet-Yaak ecosystem have worked.

"I think the data is very exciting and I hope that it's true that we're seeing a recovery of the grizzly bear," said Eric Klepfer, who manages environmental activities for Mines Management.

"The method of analysis has been demonstrated to be highly effective at better understanding the health and population of the bears, and will assist our efforts to develop a management plan to further stabilize the grizzly bear in northwest Montana," Glenn Dobbs, Mines Management president and chief executive officer, said through a press release.

Mines Management contracted with scientists from the University of Washington and Kline Environmental Research to assess the grizzly bear population in the Montanore Mine project area near Libby during the summer of 2009. Bear scat was collected using specially trained dogs in an area covering approximately 419 square miles in and around the region.

"There are several methods that the biologists use to estimate populations based on statistical data that's collected," Klepfer said.

"We asked our biologist, Dr. Ed Kline, to take a look at the results ... and he used several methods to calculate what that is. They are estimates."

Klepfer said 18 grizzly bear samples in the study area were collected and of those, DNA results identified eight individual bears. Working from those numbers, Kline used a statistical analysis to reach his conclusions.

"Dr. Kline had looked at it using various methods that had a number that could be as high as 40 and a number as low as 18 with very high confidence," Klepfer said. "It depends how you want to look at it; it's fairly subjective."

Wayne Kasworm, a grizzly bear specialist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service office out of Libby, said it was difficult for him to comment on the press release's general statements and would need more specific information.

Still, Kasworm did say that the minimum number of grizzly bears that he could identify in the same area stands at 16.

"We have DNA and other sightings where we're suggesting the population is a minimum of 16 bears in the Cabinet Mountains," Kasworm said. "I do not know from the information they provided to us so far whether the bears they've identified are the same or different ones than what we've identified."

Kasworm said that the estimate of 16 bears as a minimum number is just that and that there could be more grizzlies. The minimum number of grizzly bears in the entire Cabinet-Yaak ecosystem has been estimated at 40 to 45.

"In his (Kline's) report, he states that it's unlikely that there's 40 bears walking around in the study area. He also suggests in the study area that there are very likely 20 to 30 bears. ... It's a method that we put together to try to monitor the mine's activities and this method has been used in many other projects. We thought we'd give it a try and I guess we were surprised. ... We didn't expect to see this kind of number."

Mines Management's statement, "significantly more grizzly bears" was based on a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service report at the time of the study.

"If he says 16 and we're saying 18, I guess you draw whatever conclusions you want," Klepfer said. "It's not the same number and if it really is 20 to 30 in the study area and some overlap in others, I'd say that's significantly higher than 16."

Kline has worked with Mines Management for several years on various studies. Klepfer said he obtained as much information as possible through public sources.

"The public information available on this type of data is not real thorough," Klepfer said.

And that may put a kink into the study's numbers.

Kasworm made reference to what very well could be the same Mines Management study that suggested there are more than 100 grizzlies in the Cabinet-Yaak ecosystem. Kasworm spotted a significant error and if that calculation was used as part of the just-released report, the number of grizzlies in the study area "produces a dramatically lower number."

"If that's the same report, I wish Mines Management had come to talk to us about it," Kasworm added.

A failure to communicate between wildlife agencies and the University of Washington study seems to be a factor in whatever confusion may arise. Klepfer said those agencies were invited to take part in the study with expenses paid.

On the other end of things, Kasworm admitted that he was a little surprised that Mines Management never tried to contact him directly for data on grizzly bears.

"They provided some general comments and that was about it," Klepfer said. "We were a little disappointed but we understand they're skeptical of things that we do. We've tried to be proactive in understanding it. ... If they have issues or questions, we would be happy to sit down. If there are things we can do better on it, great, it was a test."

Another issue at stake involves the DNA analysis. While the University of Washington scientists used bear scat to extract DNA information, U.S. Fish and Wildlife prefers grizzly hair snags and the use of GPS radio collars.

"It's a relatively new technique, getting DNA out of scat is not an easy thing," Kasworm said. "The geneticist that I use to process hair does not exactly like to do scat because the rate of success of getting DNA is really low and the yield and quality of data is relatively low and relatively poor and takes a lot of lab work to get a result. On that basis, we're not doing much with scat."

Kasworm characterized the lab his agency uses as one of the top two in the world.

Klepfer said the University of Washington has done DNA scat work for various agencies on species such as the gray wolf and spotted owl. The team has also done scat analysis in Canada.

"They are doing the DNA scat analysis in a lot of different places," Klepfer said. "They have a protocol they've developed and published. ... It's a good study and I think the combination of radio collars, hair snags and bear scat - one isn't better than the other one - are all good methods."

In the end, Kasworm said it's difficult to really scrutinize the Mines Management study with such little information.

"Without seeing a little more of what they have seen, it's difficult and probably premature to comment too much more on it than that," he said.

Klepfer hopes to see better communication as the process moves forward.

"I think the way we resolve these issues and understand it is a better public-private partnership to communicate and find a common solution," he said.

The Montanore silver and copper mine, if approved, could employ more than 300 workers.