Weather forecast full of maybes

COEUR d’ALENE — More rain and less smoke? Could be a North Idaho pipe dream. Or the real deal.

Regional meteorologist Randy Mann notes that North Idaho has had a scant six-hundredths of an inch of rain since July 1. That could change late Sunday — or not.

According to Spokane-based National Weather Service meteorologist Joey Clevenger, a big low-pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska is on its way with “a pretty decent amount of moisture,” set to arrive late Sunday. Clevenger said the models are having a hard time determining whether that system will result in rain for our region. While moisture isn’t assured, he said, the system will provide the area with its best chance for rain.

Similarly, forecasting air quality is a hazy endeavor. Clevenger said that today winds are expected to shift more westerly, which could lead to “marginal improvements to air quality.” The unpredictable factor is what happens with the wildfires in the Cascades. He said if they get very active and put out a lot of smoke, air quality here will not improve.

Clevenger also said some breezy winds of 20-25 mph will impact the Columbia Basin today and could reach into the Idaho Panhandle.

The shift in winds could be helpful, said Shawn Sweetapple, IDEQ’s regional air quality manager in Coeur d’Alene. Winds have been pulling smoke in from British Columbia, where fires are pumping out a lot of smoke. Smoke production with wildfires to the west haven’t been as intense as with the Canadian fires, he said. Nothing is for certain, Sweetapple surmised, but between the winds changing and the chance for rain late Sunday he added, “We’re very hopeful that it’s going to get better.”

The U.S. Forest Service advised Wednesday that a red flag watch will be in effect this afternoon and evening due to the higher winds and low humidity.

Sweetapple said residents should remember that air quality can change very quickly due to distant wildfires or local ones, as with the wheat fire that sprang up along Highway 41 on the Rathdrum Prairie late Tuesday afternoon. Those sensitive to air quality should be aware of conditions and curtail their activities if they need to, he added.

Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s are expected for the weekend, Clevenger said.