Relief at pump expected to continue

By BRIAN WALKER

Staff writer

As Bill Jones filled up his truck on Friday, he admitted he hasn't paid attention to gas prices this summer.

"They've seemed to be holding steady, so I stopped watching," he said with a smile at the Lancaster Market in Hayden.

The Hayden man then had another thought.

"With it being Labor Day weekend, though, I'm sure prices will start climbing from here on out," he said.

According to AAA Idaho, the average price for a gallon of regular was $2.61 in Coeur d'Alene and $2.79 in Sandpoint on Thursday. That's 6 cents cheaper than a month ago and 46 cents lower than a year ago at this time.

Coeur d'Alene's price is between the nation's average of $2.58 and Idaho's mark of $2.82 while Sandpoint’s is near the upper range of the state’s average.

Although a slight bump in demand that raises gas prices a cent or two was considered possible over the holiday weekend, prices are generally expected to trend downward after the holiday weekend, said Matthew Conde, AAA Idaho spokesman.

"Crude oil prices are hovering between $50 and $60 per barrel right now, and at this time last year, they were between $60 and $75 per barrel," Conde said. "About half the price of a gallon of gas is based on the price of crude oil, so the perception that there is a global oversupply of crude oil has been helpful in that sense."

In addition, regional refineries have replaced fuel as fast as it’s been consumed, even with record demand, so the current level of gasoline stocks is considerably higher than last year (about 1 million barrels more in the Rockies region).

"Other factors like the switch to cheaper-to-produce winter-blend fuel in mid-September, and reduced travel demand as people stay closer to home due to school obligations and colder weather, could apply additional downward pressure on gas prices all the way to Thanksgiving," Conde said.

OPEC isn’t meeting to discuss the possibility of further crude oil production cuts until December, so barring the unforeseen in terms of hurricanes, geopolitical tensions or other issues, AAA would expect the overall pattern of savings since Memorial Day to continue until at least the Thanksgiving holiday travel period.

Based on historical trends and lower gas prices, AAA says projects that 198,000 Idahoans were expected to take advantage of the warm weather for a Labor Day getaway of 50 miles or more.

Nationwide, up to 36 million Americans could follow suit. About 90 percent will drive on their trips.

"Historically, Labor Day isn’t as busy as Memorial Day or Independence Day, but it’s definitely a chance for one last summer adventure," Conde said.